New Arcanis research argues the $200+ billion late-stage private secondary market is consolidating around platforms that host the institutional decision surface — the same structural shift that produced Bloomberg in public equities.DOVER, Del., May 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Arcanis (arcanis.com), a decision surface infrastructure company for late-stage private companies, today published two research papers laying out a market-structure thesis: the late-stage private secondary market is consolidating, and the platforms that host the institutional decision surface — the layer where the hardest pricing calls get made and defended — will consolidate the market around themselves. The papers argue that this is the same architectural shift that produced Bloomberg in public equities decades ago, now arriving in a $200+ billion asset class. <img alt="" data-mce-style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" height="414" src="https://ml.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/703889d8-2d24-4a78-9ff0-d27c418495dd/alex-prokofyev-may-7-2026.png" style="display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;" width="414" data-dpi="96" data-filename="Alex Prokofyev May 7_ 2026.png" /> "Bloomberg moment: The race to host the decision" and the companion methodology paper "The Decision Surface" together describe a market in transition. Six structural forces — including the distribution drought (US VC LPs sitting on roughly $197 billion of negative cumulative cash flow since 2022), an IPO delay that has stretched median time-to-public to over eight years, and the SEC's adviser-led secondaries fairness rule — are converging on the same outcome: the late-stage private market needs a layer that does not yet exist at scale. Arcanis argues this is the moment that decides which platforms become market centers and which become inputs. "This is the architectural moment that defines the next decade of private markets," said Alex Prokofyev, Founder and CEO of Arcanis. "Public equities went through this fifty years ago. Bloomberg won not by being the cheapest price feed but by being the place where every decision-relevant artifact lived in one inspectable workflow. Late-stage private markets are now in that same moment. The platforms that build the decision surface — the configurable, inspectable, scenario-decomposed layer that buyers and sellers reference before they transact — will set the gravitational pull for the rest of the market." From AI Trust Layer to Standardization Architecture Arcanis launched in 2025 introducing the concept of an "AI trust layer" for venture capital research, anchored on four principles: completeness, systematics, transparency, and clarity of output. The new papers extend that framework into a market-structure argument: trust layers do not remain niche tools. They become the standard around which entire markets organize. The methodology paper specifies four architectural conditions any institutional-grade decision surface must satisfy — traceable data, consistency, persistent company memory, and inspectable, decomposed outputs — and argues these conditions apply regardless of who builds the surface. "AI trust layers are essential infrastructure in every domain where humans seek to maintain control," Prokofyev said. "In capital markets, the consequences of getting this wrong show up as mispriced deals, regulatory backlash, and capital allocated to the wrong companies. The papers we are publishing today set out the architecture that makes a trust layer durable — and explain why the platforms that adopt it first will define what the market looks like ten years from now." Why The Consolidation Is Happening Now Drawing on the April 2026 "Secondary is Primary" panel hosted by Manhattan Venture Partners (MVP) — featuring Tom Callahan (Nasdaq Private Market), Eric Yi (Citi Private Capital Advisory), Jared Carmel (MVP), and Jason Saltzman (CB Insights) — and on published research from Jefferies, PitchBook, Wellington, and Cambridge Associates, the Arcanis papers identify six structural forces driving consolidation: •  The distribution drought: US VC LPs sitting on approximately $197 billion of negative cumulative cash flow since 2022 •  The IPO delay: median time-to-IPO now exceeds eight years, with structured tenders described by senior practitioners as "the new IPOs" •  Regulatory pressure: the SEC's August 2023 adviser-led secondaries fairness rule, mandating independent valuation opinions •  Price-discovery breakdown: pre-2022 vintage marks trading at 31-59% discounts; no standardized fair-value process •  Bank fee-pool migration: investment banks following IPO and M&amp;A fees into private-market tenders and continuation vehicles •  Wealth-channel democratization: Hamilton Lane, Blackstone, and other major sponsors launching products that extend retail access while raising compliance requirements A Living Reference, Open To Industry Input In a notable editorial choice, both papers are published as observational rather than predictive. The market structure note declines to predict winners and instead identifies categories of platform — institutional marketplaces, marketplace-derived indices, data and analytics platforms, bank private capital advisory groups, issuer-controlled tender platforms, dedicated PE/VC secondary funds, and broker-dealer matching networks — that are positioned to compete to host the decision surface. "We are not in a position to predict winners, and we know any single vantage point is partial," Prokofyev said. "The paper is the first version of what we expect to become a living reference, updated with corrections, additions, and counter-arguments from any market participant who wishes to engage. We would rather get the paper right than get it published." Both papers are open to read at arcanis.com/research, where readers can also subscribe for future versions and submit input or corrections. Implications For The Market The papers argue that decision surfaces consolidate through four mechanisms: multi-counterparty value (a deal closes faster when buyer and seller use the same surface), procurement compounding (once LPACs, fairness-opinion providers, and 409A teams accept a methodology, it becomes the default reference), persistent memory (platforms with longer surface-history hold a moat), and shared coordinate systems (a methodology that becomes commonly accepted defines the language in which the market discusses pricing). "Whichever platforms host the decision surface first set the gravitational pull for the rest of the market," Prokofyev said. "This is the same pattern that produced Bloomberg, Reuters, GitHub, and every comparable infrastructure consolidation in adjacent markets. A surface either tips and consolidates, or stays small and gets absorbed. The middle outcome is rare. The decisions are being made now." Availability Both papers are available immediately at <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=sAnSqdAoL1rZhVLYQz0786M5hMd_CbfpRiLhXz_-bnVG1gkjxDAtz2WZigwWN9BY47jydcVYUmatWdH370nVtjVe1tmhwfOXSe2rIgD5pZk=" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="">arcanis.com/research</a>. Arcanis offers its underlying decision surface infrastructure to platform partners through API, embedded white-label hubs, inspectable Excel models, and structured PDF deliverables. Institutional partners can request a 20-minute working session at the same address. About Arcanis Arcanis is decision surface infrastructure for late-stage private companies. Built and used inside an active VC secondary fund, the company supplies the institutional pricing methodology layer that platforms — marketplaces, data products, broker networks, and bank private capital advisory practices — can host or embed to compete for the consolidation race in late-stage private markets. The methodology runs on four architectural pillars (traceable data, consistency, persistent company memory, and inspectable, decomposed outputs) and is delivered via API, embedded white-label hub, and inspectable Excel. About Arcanis Capital Founded in 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland, Arcanis Capital is a data-driven portfolio management firm enabling investors to capture venture capital opportunities through systematic strategies. Arcanis (the decision surface infrastructure company) is a 2024 spin-off of Arcanis Capital. About Systematic Investment Intelligence (SII) Systematic Investment Intelligence (SII) is the open framework for building standards in investment research published by Arcanis. It asserts four key principles: completeness, systematics, transparency, and clarity of output. The framework establishes measurable criteria for decision research and is designed to be validated and improved by the professional community. SII is the architectural foundation underneath the four pillars of decision-grade pricing described in the new Arcanis methodology paper. <pre>CONTACT: Liz Sietot, PR, Arcanis

Phone: +35795709855

Email: liz@arcanis.com</pre> <img alt="" src='https://ml.globenewswire.com/media/ZWJhZTQzY2UtYjNlNS00ZDVlLWI2ZjgtYzJlNDkzMDQwMTQ0LTUwMDE2MjM3NC0yMDI2LTA1LTEzLWVu/tiny/Arcanis.png' referrerpolicy='no-referrer-when-downgrade' />

Arcanis Publishes Twin Research Papers Calling 'Bloomberg Moment' for Late-Stage Private Markets

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